Silviu Sergiu: "Only five percents separates Traian Basescu and Sorin Oprescu in the top of trust in political personalities".
The IMAS poll released yesterday shows that the actual president has a level of trust of 45%m while the freshly elected mayor of the Capital has 40%. For now, the figures are not very relevant. Sorin Oprescu's spectacular raise is of an emotional nature, and not based on reason. "The doctor" is in a full "honey moon" after the winning of Bucharest. He is the victorious politician behind who are aligning themselves those who haven't voted him. The five percents difference doesn't necessarily mean that if tomorrow would be the presidential elections, Oprescu would have real chances of winning in front of the actual president. From trust to vote intention is a long way. The IMAS poll has an important role: it points the political personalities who will dominate the political stage in the following period.
Sorin Oprescu could become, in the year that separates us from the presidential elections, a powerful counter candidate for Traian Basescu. From the IMAS poll can be observed that the Doctor's increase is produced in front of the president. The situation is a consequence of Basescu's involvement, active and uninspired, in the Bucharest electoral campaign. Sorin Oprescu hasn't defeated just Vasile Blaga in the elections for the Capital Mayoralty, but Traian Basescu also. The president's image of an undefeated political leader, with unfailing strategies, was melted by the "independent's" victory. Oprescu's placement as as main adversary of the chief of state, strengthened by the IMAS poll, shows something else as well: Romanians continuously prefer a political leader who fights with the rotten system, but he is not willing to identify this pattern with a single politician. The electorate needs fresh faces, even clones from the laboratory.
Sorin Oprescu promises that he wants to stay 12 years at the Capital Mayoralty, that he hasn't the smallest intention to candidate at the presidency. Let's be serious! What other statements would make a politician who just received the vote of trust from the electorate, immediately after his triumph? In the honey moon, the electorate's sensibility is maximum. The first impression after the elections matters very much. A wrong gesture and all can fall apart for Oprescu in a second. If he would declare, now, his intention to dump the inhabitants of Bucharest in 2009, to candidate at the presidency, would be a suicidal gesture.
In a year's time, the situation is going to be similar, but in an opposite way. If his performance from the Capital Mayoralty will maintain him at a high level of trust, for Sorin Oprescu it would be almost impossible to refuse the presidency candidateship. This kind of action will be as suicidal as the previous one. Oprescu can't afford to betray the electorate's expectations, to seem a politician without courage. And, anyway, leaving the general mayor position in order to be president is not an action that is a political burial. All that matters is to wrap well the switch. Traian Basescu proved this already.
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