Mircea Marian: "President Medvedev said that he is ready. Asked if his country could attack Ukraine or the Baltic countries, he said that in these countries are loiving millions of Russians, and he, as supreme commander has the right to protect their life and dignity. "
In the Black Sea, the Russian military fleet has taken "precautionary measures" against NATO ships, announced a spokeperson of Prime Minister Putin. The Russian government seems determined not to give away any step in front of the West and declared that it is not afraid of anything, even from blocking access to the World Trade Organization
But I believe that the aggressive statements from Kremlin are the result of an excess of confidence, and Russia is not able to enter a long-term confrontation with the West. The people from Moscow, so far, are a little too excited after smashing the little Georgian army. The Russian people, who looks after the glory of the former empire or of the Soviet Union, applaud the determination of its leaders. But if you would look more closely at the statistics, you would see that, for example, that the United States has a gross domestic product ten times larger than Russia's. The government in Washington spends for defence seven times more than Moscow. According to data published a week ago by "The Economist", Russia's population is reduced annually by 800,000 people.
The Russian economy is supported, so far, by the higher prices of oil and gas, but a part of the analysts are predicting a dramatic drop, one of them stating recently, for CNN, that a barrel of oil could reach below 90 dollars. The returns of the Russian state would decrease, in this case dramatically. In parallel, the states of Europe will seek to reduce dependence on gas imports from Russia.
However, most of the profits from exports of raw materials arrive in the olicarchs pockets, while the majority of the population continues to live in poverty. From this perspective, a way to put Kremlin in a difficult situation would be that the West to begin to investigate the legality of the business of the Russian oligarchs living abroad. The idea belongs to some lawyers who wrote recently in a major American daily that the U.S. should urge the prosecutors to investigate the oligarchs and check them if they have paid all taxes. People will understand the message and will press the government from Moscow to improve relations with the West.
On the short term, I think it is important that the NATO states and the European Union to simulate, at least, the unity. What Russia hopes is to break the West and to quickly abandon interest in Georgia and Ukraine, for the sake of profitable business with Gazprom.
I think the people from Moscow have no chance to wear a Cold War, in the long term, as the one between the Soviet Union and NATO. Perhaps the Russian army scares some of the smaller neighbours, but not even China has certain worries in front of Moscow. Further, anyone can remember how it finished, for the Soviets, the Cold War: in poverty and economic bankruptcy.
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