Mircea Marian: "I know, at the television you can see that the Russians have given the Georgians a bad beat."
Putin's army is walking freely around the capital Tbilisi, and the only thing that can be done by president Saakaşvili is to complain of the Russian to the Americans. President Bush asks twice a day the maintaing of the sovereignty of Georgia, but the Kremlin is not listening him. In Gori, the Russians have destroyed the Georgian television broadcaster and have installed one that allows receiving posts from Moscow. For residents in the area, it seems that follows a long period of indoctrination.
But, Putin could pay dearly the demonstration of force in Georgia. Russians have managed to make public opinion in Western Europe, including that of Germany, to be hostile. Reports about the robberies and the ethnic cleansing committed in the Georgian territory remember of the Red Army's abuses, when, in 1945, it has penetrated into eastern Europe. A book published recently told that even the women released from Auschwitz were violated by the Soviet soldiers. Now, even "Der Spiegel" - targeted, traditionally to the left and with strong anti-Bush accents - wrote, yesterday, under the the picture Putin: "The dangerous neighbour." Among the very few personalities who argues that Saakaşvili is to blame for the crisis in the Caucasus is Gerhard Schroeder, a guy who was well paid by Gazprom.
The Kremlin offensive had another effect: has convinced the Poles to accept the protection offered by U.S. anti-missile shield and the Germans to agree with Georgia's accession to NATO. Many commentators are puting a retorical question: will NATO fight for a country so distant? I believe that the real issue is whether the Russians will have the courage to invade a member country of this alliance. In the nearly 60 years of existence, only once a territory of a NATO state was occupied in 1982, when Argentina has landed in the Falkland Islands, thus attacking the UK.
Finally, the Russians will have to pay a financial cost. In this short period of conflict, from the capital market in Russia have left seven billion U.S. dollars. Entries of capital during this year will not reach the predicted level of 30-40 billion USD, said, yesterday, the Russian finance minister. In parallel, it is discussed the process of blocking Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, the suspension of partnership with the EU or the elimination of the country from the group of eight industrialized countries, the G8.
There are some who believe that Russia has calculated all these threats and it has assumed them. Maybe. But I do not see the the Russian leaders as great chess players, who anticipate every move, in the long term. In brackets, the man considered to be the greatest player of all time, Garry Kasparov, is Putin's rival. So I think that, once the victory euphoria will pass, Moscow will see that it has made an evil that will be very difficult to repair. Russia risks to be put in quarantine, and the Soviet experience has shown already that the isolation ends in poverty.