MIRCEA MARIAN: "The most simple answer would be: PDL was the winner, but at a distance of only a few thousands votes ahead of PSD."
If we are taking into account the vote for the county councils - considered to be the "political" one - Traian Basescu's party obtained, by a nose, the victory. In my opinion, besides the mathematical calculations, we could say that PDL, and PSD have lost, and the great winners are the liberals of Prime Minister Tariceanu.
Compared to the local elections from 2004, PSD gathered less cotes and elected positions in the local administration. In June 2004, the social-democrats were benefiting - at the county councils elections - by the support of 32.71% of the voters present at the ballots. After four years of opposition, PSD reached 28.22%. Geoana's men are holding the presidency of 17 county councils, while in 2004, they ahd 19 such positions. PSD's management are complaining that this result is justified by the fact that the party's leaders have been harassed by the Prosecutor's Office. The explanation doesn't stand: in 2004, Traian Basescu was viewed almost every day in front of the DNA headquarters, which was investigating the "Fleet" file, and the result was that, at the time, the leader of the Democrat Party was elected president of Romania.
PDL failed to put in good use the alliance with the liberal-democrats of Theodor Stolojan. At the euro-parliamentary elections from November 2007, PD was benefiting from 28.81% of the votes, and PDL of 7.78%. After the hasted unification of the two parties, PDL gathered, at the local elections, only 28.38% from the electors options. More, as the leaders of this party are obsessively repeating, what matters is the trend. In this case, the trend pointed by both the polls, and by the results of the elections is decreasing. If until the votes for the elections of the future parliament a major political change will not occur, PDL has all the chances to drop under PSD.
On the other hand, the liberals, after four years of governing, they have achieved the best result in the post-decembrist history of this group. The party was under fire from all positions: ministers investigated by DNA, a press which was reporting almost every day about the incompetence of liberal statesmen and, not at least, Traian Basescu's pressure. With all these, PNL raised with 5 percents, compared to the elections for the European Parliament. The liberals were disadvantaged just by the election through direct vote of the county councils presidents, where they have won five terms. In 2004, they have negotiated seven positions of this kind.
Besides these tangled statistics, the public opinion will perceive as winner the one who will win the Capital's City Hall. Blaga is fighting for Traian Basescu's reputation, and Oprescu for Ion Iliescu. It is not just a symbolic battle. The PSD strategists are preparing for their "independent" candidate a large scale part, if he will win Bucharest: the presidency of PSD, where he would replace Mircea Geoana, and from 2009 they will duplicate Basescu's successful recipe and will throw Oprescu in the battle for the presidency of Romania.