Ioana Lupea: "Somewhere hidden in the INSOMAR poll, Vasile Blaga's hope is flickering."
Even if it doesn't mentiones what is the percent of the absents at the first round who will attend the second, the Realtatea TV report shows that 50.4% of the new electors will vote with Vasile Blaga and 32.2% with Sorin Oprescu. The larger will be their numbers, the larger will be the chance of the PDL candidate to win the Capital's City Hall.
These voters are a drop from the electorate who gave Traian Basescu not only the Capital's City Hall, but also the General Council in 2004, stopped the raise of Adrian Nastase to the highest position in the state and helped at the re-establishment at Cotroceni of the banned president in May 2007. It made pretty much for pretty little. Meanwhile, it discovered that the hopes invested in a magical savior in the course of the transition can be fulfilled, at least partially, through personal efforts. That in conditions of freedom and economical growth it can satisfy by itself the material and professional expectations, that the change towards the better of its life - even of the society - it is not depending of an only politician, whoever he would be.
The president spoke to this electorate, sensible to values, but very demanding, in his latest public intervention. He showed it the red kerchief which connects Sorin Oprescu to Ion Iliescu. Also to it are addressed the exaggeratedly transparent and insistent political messages sent by Emil Boc or Liviu Negoita. The great question is how many absents can be mobilized to the ballots with the threat of the Capital takeover by PSD led by Ion Iliescu, by fear or duty. Probably that after the failures of Adriean Videanu's administration and of Traian Basescu presidential term, not enough to assure the victory for Vasile Blaga. As it is indicated by the INSOMAR poll.
The great chance of the PDL candidate could be even Sorin Oprescu. Like Traian Basescu, from who he has borrowed strategies and messages, Oprescu has the capacity to gather: he arouses strong sympathies and antipathies. If the politic is not heating them up, the possibility of Sorin Oprescu to be appointed mayor of the Capital is not matter which leaves them indifferent. The lesser evil option disgusts them, but the contempt for what Sorin Oprescu represents - opportunism, demagogy, cunning - could turn them around from their road to the seaside or the mountains, to the ballots.
A part of the electorate from Bucharest which voted for Traian Basescu since 2000 could, for pity or disgust, give Vasile Blaga on the 14 of July the salvation vote. Not a sympathy vote for the PDL candidate or the party, and not an answer to the presidential call, but mostly a rejection vote of the public functions and communism memories collector, Sorin Oprescu.