Florian Bichir: "Paradoxically, what Dinu Patriciu was announcing a few years back, and what was viewed in an alien manner starts to take shape. An alliance between PSD and PNL".
Fresh at the helm of PSD, Adrian Nastase presented multiple options regarding the future of the party: the first of which contains the likelihood that the summer local elections will also include legislative elections. The second represent independent elections without PSD involved in the governing, and the third, independent elections with PSD involved in the governing together with PNL.
Beyond our likes and dislikes, we must admit that Adrian Nastase is conducting a cold and real analysis.
An option for PSD is to forge an alliance that would obtain the absolute majority of Parliament mandates. This needs to be a political one, before the elections, so that the head of state would be bound by the Constitution to nominate a prime-minister from it’s ranks. If the alliance is set into play after the elections, meaning that if no party in the electoral campaign receives more then 50+1% of the mandates, Traian Basescu can nominate anyone as prime-minister.
Is such a situation, PSD and PNL seem to be forced to accept a PDL minor government. Keeping this in mind, it’s essential that the 2008 political equation is favourable towards PSD, in the form of PSD+PLN>PDL, or, in a more general acceptance, Traian Basescu to not be able, constraint by election results and “historical experiences” obtained by PNL and UDMR, to force another political majority, like the once he succeeded on implementing in December 2004.
The strategy has a flaw thou. The problem facing PSD and PLN is if PDL will obtain a majority of votes. That is the reason for which, the new PDL party is in a constant campaign and uses every opportunity to shutdown the current executive. And an intervention from Traian Basescu in the campaign could elevate PDL to a percentage that would allow it to govern worry-free, eventually thru the help of parliament minorities, to whom the Hungarian Civic Union might adhere. Union that has know a constant increase ever since the decline of UDMR into cheap politics.
Unfortunately for PNL, Adrian Nastase’s strategy seems to be the only viable option. Having reached a percentage that seems to revolve around the 10% mark, the liberals seems to be damned to co-exist with PSD. If until now they only politically flirted, the two parties will need to legally wed now. Otherwise they will watch how PDL will be at the helm of the country for years. Or maybe that is the wish of some liberals as this was also Dinu Patriciu’s theory: a small party, to run all the operations in parliament by shifting from one political form to another.
Some sort of Joker without whom nobody would be able to make any important decision. PSD’s status is more complicated thou, as it is a big party, a mammoth used to govern, and local barons are not used to shift to the opposition. But to stay in front of the spoils, where the money are, but also the power of decision.
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