Few of his voters are from the rows of the independents. The greatest part is from the anti-Basescu electorate of PSD, PRM, PC, PNL, PNG.
Sorin Oprescu gathered, under the title of independent candidate, the votes of 164.000 inhabitants of Bucharest. Not only he outruned Vasile Blaga, the candidate of the best voted party in the Capital, PDL - 36%. He managed to gather by himself as much as the PSD, PNL, PRM, PC, PNŢCD, PNG, PIN and the other ten pocket parties candidates who entered the Bucharest race all together. This performance has a simple explanation. Oprescu didn't had behind him a single party, but around 10-12, each suppling him with 1000 to 80.000 votes.
In the last two years, and during the electoral campaign, Sorin Oprescu built up his image of a radical opponet of president Basescu. This attitude helped him to recruit sympathizers from the electoral pools of the anti-Basescu parties: PSD, PRM, PC, PNG and PNL.
From the real "independents": only 12.500 votes
Sorin Oprescu is the only candidate to mayoralty who made an important campaign, addressing to the electorate which is fed up with the parties. The anti-system propaganda brought him at most 12.500 votes from those who are not finding themselves in any party. This is the number of those who, in the first round, voted only for the candidate to the City Hall, ignoring the lists with councilors proposed by the parties. From "godfather" Iliescu from PSD: 70.000-80.000 votes
The majority of Oprescu's voters was delivered by PSD. His hasted departure from the party of whom was member for 16 years didn't convinced anyone that it was a real divorce. More, the public support manifested by Ion Iliescu, Nicolae Vacaroiu, Adrian Năstase, Victor Ponta and other PSD leaders convinced the social-democrate electorate that Oprescu is still faithfull to the party.
Not last, the indirect help received by the PSD campaign staff, who was faking that he was working for Diaconescu, reinforced the social-democrat electorate's impression that Oprecu is the real candidate. An INSOMAR exit-poll, showed that more than half of those who voted with PSD, also voted with Oprescu, almost 70.000-80.000 votes. From the friends in PRM and PC: 30.000 votes
C.V. Tudor's party assured Oprescu approximately 20.000 votes. It's about that electorate which voted for PRM for the Capital's General Council, but ignored the part's candidate, Verginia Verdinas. For PRM were recorded 20.000 votes more than for its candidate, options which, mostly went to Oprescu.
This support from the PRM electorate is perfectly explainable. C.V. Tudor stated his support for Oprescu from the moment when the Doctor, refused by PSD, announced that he will candidate as independent.
Like the PRM electorate, the PC voters stamped in proportion of 65%-70% with Oprescu. The conservatives candidate to the City Hall. Codrin Stefansecu, obtained 10.000 votes under his party. These options went almost entirely to Oprescu.
Taking into consideration the resemblance between the PNG and PRM electorate, it can easily be supposed that a part of the voters of Gigi Becali's party had easily identified with Oprescu. The PNG candidate Daniel Fuciu is lacking 15.000 votes compared to his party and we can suppose where they went.
From the socialists cousins: 15.000 votes
Five leftist parties, satellites of PSD, brought together 15.000 votes to Oprescu. From these, one - the Union of Retired and Social Solidarity (UPSS) from Romania, Petre Roman's party - supported Oprescu directly.
Besides the 3.500 votes, UPSS also made him another favor. Through its representatives in the voting stations, Roman, followed his commitment and took care of the independent candidate's votes.
The Romanian Ecologist Party (PER), the Green Party, PSR and PAS are four groups which are negotiating a future alliance with PSD: "The Democratic Left Platform". Together they brought Oprescu nearly 12.000 votes. The most consistent contribution - 5.5000 votes - was from PER, who's candidate said in the campaign that he will support Oprescu. The Greens came with 3.500 votes, and the rest were from PAS and PSR. The last party's candidate was Alexandru Mironov, who also left PSD recently. Mironov said in the campaign that PSR is the party made for Iliescu and Oprescu, who's candidateship will suport.
The liberals and PDL-ists from Oprescu's courtyard
The INSOMAR exit-poll shows that 21% of the liberals voted for Oprescu. Even if the percentage could seem high, it is not impossible that the anti-Basescu radical liberals to see in Oprescu the person able to beat the PDL candidate. If 12.000-14.000 of the liberals voted with Oprescu, Orban recovered this loss from somewhere else. From PDL and PSD.
Strangely, for Oprescu voted a part of those who voted for the General Council with PDL. It is about at least 15.000-20.000 votes, who's migration requires a more complicated explanation.
The PNTCD electorate was the most disciplined. Aurelian Pavelscu's votes overlapped the votes obtained by the party. Secondly, Oprescu didn't take votes from PIN, because of his rivalry with Gusa. More, Gusa had 11.000 votes more than PIN.
From where could the Doctor take voters in the Second round
For the second round, the electorate will gather at the two poles: pro and against Basescu. Because of this, Oprescu is betting on the enlargement of the PSD, PRM, PC and even PNL pools. Compared to the first round, he has at his disposal another 125.000 voters: from PSD - 50.000, PNL - 50.000, PRM - 10.000, PC - 8.000 and PNTCD - 8.500. At the vote presence estimated at 25%-30%, the Capital's City Hall coul be won with 225.000-265.000 votes. In order to reach this number, Oprescu must persuade, mainly, the PNL and PSD voters to come at the ballots. Theoretically, his chances are high, because it's easy to mobilize to vote those who went at the first round, and who also have close options.
Where did the votes lost by Blaga go Vasile Blaga (foto) gathered in the first round 161.000 votes. 34.000 less than PDL. Probably this electorate can be found at the candidates which recorded more votes than their parties: to Cozmin Gusa, who had 15.000 votes more than PIN, to Ludovic Orban (2.000 more votes than PNL) or even to Sorin Oprescu. According to the INSOMAR exit-poll, a couple of thousands voted with Cristian Diaconescu. For the second round, Blaga could bet on the pro-Basescu pool, which can be estimated at 300.000-400.000 voters. Taking into accound a certain drop of Basescu in Bucharest, Blaga is still benefiting from 225.000 people who, in the past years, voted with Basscu or with the party he represented. This electorate could mobilize itself in the second round, even if in the first he didn't. Vasile Blaga could also count on Gusa's voters, and partially, on those vho voted for Orban.